{"id":213958,"date":"2022-10-20T13:08:26","date_gmt":"2022-10-20T11:08:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dev.claret.cat\/producte\/superpronosticadores\/"},"modified":"2026-07-28T17:10:51","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T15:10:51","slug":"superpronosticadores-9788415917274","status":"publish","type":"product","link":"https:\/\/www.claret.cat\/es\/libro\/superpronosticadores-9788415917274\/","title":{"rendered":"SUPERPRONOSTICADORES"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Cada vez m\u00e1s, la sociedad contempor\u00e1nea pide a los &#8216;expertos&#8217; predicciones sobre el futuro, y sobre esas predicciones se toman decisiones geopol\u00edticas, de pol\u00edticas p\u00fablicas, de inversi\u00f3n, etc\u00e9tera. Sin embargo, Philip Tetlock y su coautor Dan Gardner muestran, con un impresionante corpus de evidencia emp\u00edrica recogida a lo largo de a\u00f1os de investigaci\u00f3n, que los &#8216;pronosticadores expertos&#8217; tienen la misma posibilidad de acertar un evento futuro que un chimpanc\u00e9. En contraposici\u00f3n, los autores se centran en estudiar a los &#8216;superpronosticadores&#8217;: personas que tienen una gran capacidad de predicci\u00f3n. Y, curiosamente, esas personas son &#8216;gente com\u00fan&#8217;, no son especialistas, ni tienen acceso a informaci\u00f3n privilegiada. Porque predecir bien el futuro, ense\u00f1a &#8221;Superpronosticadores&#8221;, tiene que ver con &#8216;un modo de pensar&#8217;, esto es, con una mente abierta, cuidadosa, curiosa y autocr\u00edtica, que realiza una predicci\u00f3n inicial y luego meticulosamente la ajusta en funci\u00f3n de cada nueva evidencia o informaci\u00f3n relacionada con el tema.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TETLOCK, PHILIP E. \/ GARDNER, DAN<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":1113519,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"rs_blank_template":"","rs_page_bg_color":"","slide_template_v7":"","inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false},"product_brand":[],"product_cat":[104,554],"product_tag":[],"class_list":["post-213958","product","type-product","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","product_cat-ciencia","product_cat-ciencia-5_otras-spa","first","outofstock","taxable","shipping-taxable","purchasable","product-type-simple"],"acf":{"autor":"TETLOCK, PHILIP E. \/ GARDNER, DAN","codart":"841591727","libros-coleccion":"Ensayos","ediciones":"1","encuadernacion":"R\u00fastica","fecha_de_publicacion":"01\/03\/2017","novedad":"0","paginas":"328","subtitulo":"EL ARTE Y LA CIENCIA DE LA PREDICCI\u00d3N","orden":"0","portada":"0","idioma":"spa","booktrailer":"","resenas":"","editorial":[{"ID":262210,"post_author":"3","post_date":"2022-10-24 11:21:22","post_date_gmt":"2022-10-24 09:21:22","post_content":"","post_title":"KATZ EDITORES","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"katz-editores","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2022-10-24 11:21:22","post_modified_gmt":"2022-10-24 09:21:22","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"http:\/\/dev.claret.cat\/editorial\/katz-editores\/","menu_order":0,"post_type":"editorial","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"autores-libros":[{"ID":427652,"post_author":"3","post_date":"2023-05-16 09:10:28","post_date_gmt":"2023-05-16 07:10:28","post_content":"","post_title":"PHILIP E. 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