{"id":45407,"date":"2022-10-02T22:04:43","date_gmt":"2022-10-02T20:04:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dev.claret.cat\/producte\/dinamicas-historicas-por-que-surgen-y-caen-las-civilizaciones-y-los-estados\/"},"modified":"2023-10-06T11:13:15","modified_gmt":"2023-10-06T09:13:15","slug":"dinamicas-historicas-por-que-surgen-y-caen-las-civilizaciones-y-los-estados-9788418952227","status":"publish","type":"product","link":"https:\/\/www.claret.cat\/es\/libro\/dinamicas-historicas-por-que-surgen-y-caen-las-civilizaciones-y-los-estados-9788418952227\/","title":{"rendered":"DIN\u00c1MICAS HIST\u00d3RICAS. POR QU\u00c9 SURGEN Y CAEN LAS CIVILIZACIONES Y LOS ESTADOS"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Los procesos hist\u00f3ricos son din\u00e1micos. Las poblaciones crecen y caen. Los imperios se expanden y colapsan. Las religiones florecen y se marchitan. Los cient\u00edficos han logrado grandes avances en la comprensi\u00f3n de los procesos din\u00e1micos en la f\u00edsica y la biolog\u00eda utilizando un en-foque sint\u00e9tico que combina los modelos matem\u00e1ticos con el an\u00e1lisis estad\u00edstico, pero estos avances no se hab\u00edan aplicado anteriormente a la historia de seres humanos. <\/p>\n<p> Este libro muestra que una investigaci\u00f3n similar puede hacer avanzar nuestra comprensi\u00f3n de los procesos din\u00e1micos en la historia. Peter Turchin desarrolla su teor\u00eda \u00abCliodin\u00e1mica\u00bb a partir de la conversi\u00f3n de una amplia gama de factores sociales, pol\u00edticos, econ\u00f3micos y demogr\u00e1ficos a modelos matem\u00e1ticos. Centr\u00e1ndose en aspectos como la geopol\u00edtica, los factores que afectan la solidaridad colectiva, la asimilaci\u00f3n \u00e9tnica, la conversi\u00f3n religiosa, la interacci\u00f3n entre la poblaci\u00f3n o la estabilidad sociopol\u00edtica. <\/p>\n<p> Las pruebas demuestran que ciertos modelos predicen patrones con un grado muy alto de precisi\u00f3n. Por ejemplo, explica las olas recurrentes de ruptura de los Estados en la Europa medieval y moderna o confirman que la solidaridad etnonacionalista produce un estado agresivamente expansivo bajo ciertas condiciones. La fuerza de los resultados de Turchin sugiere que el enfoque que \u00e9l defiende puede mejorar significativamente nuestra comprensi\u00f3n de la din\u00e1mica hist\u00f3rica.<\/p>\n<p> \u00abPeter Turchin, quiz\u00e1s el historiador m\u00e1s estudiado del momento\u00bb.  Matthew Syed, The Times.<\/p>\n<p> \u00abPeter Turchin, el Nostradamus de la historia que hace diez a\u00f1os ya predijo que 2020 ser\u00eda atroz\u00bb. Miquel Echarri, El Pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n<p> \u00abUna maravillosa mirada entre bastidores a un esfuerzo por convertir las teor\u00edas informales en modelos matem\u00e1ticos convincentes capaces de producir nuevos conocimientos\u00bb. William C. Terry, Universidad Cemson.<\/p>\n<p> ?Peter Turchin, el cient\u00edfico que predijo los conflictos de 2020?. Dimas Ibarra (Cambio 16)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PETER TURCHIN<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":60753,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"rs_blank_template":"","rs_page_bg_color":"","slide_template_v7":"","inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false},"product_brand":[],"product_cat":[429],"product_tag":[],"class_list":["post-45407","product","type-product","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","product_cat-el-mundo-actual","first","instock","taxable","shipping-taxable","purchasable","product-type-simple"],"acf":{"autor":"PETER TURCHIN","codart":"841895222","libros-coleccion":"","ediciones":"1","encuadernacion":"R\u00fastica","fecha_de_publicacion":"01\/01\/2022","novedad":"1","paginas":"443","subtitulo":"","orden":"0","portada":"0","idioma":"spa","editorial":[{"ID":147919,"post_author":"3","post_date":"2022-10-14 11:54:15","post_date_gmt":"2022-10-14 09:54:15","post_content":"","post_title":"EDITORIAL ALMUZARA","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"editorial-almuzara","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2022-10-14 11:54:15","post_modified_gmt":"2022-10-14 09:54:15","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"http:\/\/dev.claret.cat\/editorial\/editorial-almuzara\/","menu_order":0,"post_type":"editorial","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"autores-libros":[{"ID":167133,"post_author":"3","post_date":"2022-10-14 18:08:48","post_date_gmt":"2022-10-14 16:08:48","post_content":"","post_title":"PETER TURCHIN","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"peter-turchin","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2022-10-14 18:08:48","post_modified_gmt":"2022-10-14 16:08:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"http:\/\/dev.claret.cat\/autor\/peter-turchin\/","menu_order":0,"post_type":"autor","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}]},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"DIN\u00c1MICAS HIST\u00d3RICAS. 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